Giovanni Lucignani

Common sense is indeed sufficient to show us that, from the observation of what has in former instances been the consequence of a certain cause or action, one may make a judgment what is likely to be the consequence of it another time, and that the larger number of experiments we have to support a conclusion, so much more the reason we have to take it for granted.

Richard Price. 1763. An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. By the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, communicated by Mr. Price, in a letter to John Canton, M. A. and F. R. S.